Reza Moradi

Declining student populations and fiscal pressures are forcing public education systems to consolidate schools. But which schools should governments close, who bears the costs, and could alternative decisions reduce inequalities without sacrificing educational quality? I develop and estimate a framework combining spatial school choice and educational production to address these questions, using Puerto Rico’s large-scale school closures during 2013–17. Drawing on linked student-teacher administrative records and geographic data, I distinguish school and teacher contributions to achievement and estimate how families substitute among schools following closures. The results reveal substantial inequalities in geographic access and educational quality. Rural-poor students account for approximately half of modeled displacement but bear 62 percent of total access losses. Moreover, changes in estimated school effectiveness are approximately 0.10 test-score standard deviations less favorable for rural-poor students than for urban non-poor students. Counterfactual analyses reveal important policy trade-offs. Prioritizing closures near surviving schools substantially reduces access losses for rural-poor students without significantly improving their exposure to effective schools. Reallocating displaced teachers yields limited gains, while better information about school effectiveness could improve families’ choices. These findings demonstrate why evaluating school consolidation requires considering both the accessibility and educational effectiveness of alternative schools.